I’m not quite as bullish as some of the public statements around how quickly we can ramp up the system, but in the medium to long term—ten years out—I’m actually quite bullish. I think this is a mode of transportation that will eventually become quite frequently used. It will be safe, it will save many of us time, it will be sustainable—so there’s a bright future to look forward to.
Advances in low-carbon and renewable hydrogen production also will be crucial to the maturity of the PtL value chain. Lowering the levelized cost of hydrogen (which includes renewable-electricity input but excludes transport and distribution) to less than $1 per kilogram would reduce the cost of PtL to $1,200 to $1,800 per ton, depending on the carbon source, amounting to a 40 percent reduction in average cost by 2030. While this cost is still higher than that of fossil jet fuel, it is within range of alternative SAFs. Low-carbon hydrogen, sometimes referred to as “blue,” is derived primarily from natural gas using carbon capture and storage, while renewable or “green” hydrogen is made with renewable electricity. Low-carbon hydrogen is more cost-competitive than renewable hydrogen today and can be used as a transition technology to scale PtL faster. Although low-carbon hydrogen has lower production costs, it requires capturing CO2 twice to produce PtL—once in the hydrogen production route and again in the fuel synthesis step. Since this is an inherently inefficient system, renewable hydrogen can be prioritized for PtL production over the long term.
Hydrogen aircraft could enter the market in the 2030s and scale up through 2050, when they could account for roughly a third of aviation’s energy demand. With current aircraft designs, hydrogen aircraft could be range limited to up to 2,500 kilometers. Redesigning airframes and storage technology might unlock longer ranges without reducing the number of available seats. If hydrogen aircraft enter the market around 2035 and achieve longer ranges, they could gain a market share of up to one third by 2050. The estimated market share drops to 13 percent by 2050 if they enter the market by 2040 and only achieve shorter ranges. Assuming breakthroughs in battery chemistries, battery-electric aircraft could potentially power regional aircraft on flights up to about 1,000 km by mid-century.
Beyond these major hubs, about 36,000 regional airports, suitable for smaller aircraft, provide coverage for less traveled routes. Lacking the facilities and landing strips required for large aircraft, regional airports are typically underused, even during busy travel times. They nevertheless serve as essential links in the transportation chain and often provide other services—from flight training to recreational flying and aerial firefighting to skydiving.
More than 50 companies are developing battery-electric, hybrid, and hydrogen powertrains; new and retrofitted aircraft designs; advanced avionics; operations and booking platforms; and other important enablers of the RAM ecosystem. More than $1 billion has been invested in these RAM start-ups to date and the first retrofitted aircraft are slated to enter service in the mid-2020s. Simultaneously, an ecosystem of operators, consisting mainly of established airlines and regionally focused start-ups, is coming together to drive the industry forward.
Battery-electric- and hydrogen-powered aircraft could make up between 21 and 38 percent of all aircraft by 2050, representing 15 to 34 percent of the sector’s overall energy needs.
65% of U.S. airports will have less air service in October 2024 than they had in 2019, with 30% of U.S. airports losing more than one in four of their commercial flights and 12% losing more than half of their flights. With
The more of the details of our daily life we can hand over to the effortless custody of automatism, the more our higher powers of mind will be set free for their own proper work.
Like any large open-source project, American democracy is kind of messy, requires a lot of volunteer effort, and often uses way too much memory. But it enables everyone to submit requests for changes so that we might better direct the power of our communities at every level toward solving our problems, and the democratic process provides an essential stability which allows people to keep buying into our country as the platform on which to build their own big ideas.
Cynicism is not a neutral position — and although it asks almost nothing of us, it is highly infectious and unbelievably destructive. In my view, it is the most common and easy of evils.