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No moment could better capture the fundamental irony of Trump's second term: a populist revolution that begins with the people outside pressing their faces against the glass.

The Power of the Perfect Pause

A more interesting question—a question that perhaps you’ve never considered before—is what pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for? Because that seems to be a greater determinant of how our lives turn out.

This new infrastructure will additionally require regular inspections and maintenance by trained staff to ensure integrity. But, these protocols would not be widely dissimilar to current kerosene handling processes – and with time would become the norm.

Let’s start with what Altman is doing right: physically writing stuff down. I love my colleague David Pierce, but he is hideously wrong about basically every productivity tool because he insists on using a computer. At this point, we have multiple studies showing that writing by hand is better for learning and memory. You want to remember something? Write, don’t type.

I’m not quite as bullish as some of the public statements around how quickly we can ramp up the system, but in the medium to long term—ten years out—I’m actually quite bullish. I think this is a mode of transportation that will eventually become quite frequently used. It will be safe, it will save many of us time, it will be sustainable—so there’s a bright future to look forward to.

Advances in low-carbon and renewable hydrogen production also will be crucial to the maturity of the PtL value chain. Lowering the levelized cost of hydrogen (which includes renewable-electricity input but excludes transport and distribution) to less than $1 per kilogram would reduce the cost of PtL to $1,200 to $1,800 per ton, depending on the carbon source, amounting to a 40 percent reduction in average cost by 2030. While this cost is still higher than that of fossil jet fuel, it is within range of alternative SAFs. Low-carbon hydrogen, sometimes referred to as “blue,” is derived primarily from natural gas using carbon capture and storage, while renewable or “green” hydrogen is made with renewable electricity. Low-carbon hydrogen is more cost-competitive than renewable hydrogen today and can be used as a transition technology to scale PtL faster. Although low-carbon hydrogen has lower production costs, it requires capturing CO2 twice to produce PtL—once in the hydrogen production route and again in the fuel synthesis step. Since this is an inherently inefficient system, renewable hydrogen can be prioritized for PtL production over the long term.

Hydrogen aircraft could enter the market in the 2030s and scale up through 2050, when they could account for roughly a third of aviation’s energy demand. With current aircraft designs, hydrogen aircraft could be range limited to up to 2,500 kilometers. Redesigning airframes and storage technology might unlock longer ranges without reducing the number of available seats. If hydrogen aircraft enter the market around 2035 and achieve longer ranges, they could gain a market share of up to one third by 2050. The estimated market share drops to 13 percent by 2050 if they enter the market by 2040 and only achieve shorter ranges. Assuming breakthroughs in battery chemistries, battery-electric aircraft could potentially power regional aircraft on flights up to about 1,000 km by mid-century.

Beyond these major hubs, about 36,000 regional airports, suitable for smaller aircraft, provide coverage for less traveled routes. Lacking the facilities and landing strips required for large aircraft, regional airports are typically underused, even during busy travel times. They nevertheless serve as essential links in the transportation chain and often provide other services—from flight training to recreational flying and aerial firefighting to skydiving.

More than 50 companies are developing battery-electric, hybrid, and hydrogen powertrains; new and retrofitted aircraft designs; advanced avionics; operations and booking platforms; and other important enablers of the RAM ecosystem. More than $1 billion has been invested in these RAM start-ups to date and the first retrofitted aircraft are slated to enter service in the mid-2020s. Simultaneously, an ecosystem of operators, consisting mainly of established airlines and regionally focused start-ups, is coming together to drive the industry forward.