How to Produce Green Hydrogen for $1-Kg⁠↗

Hydrogen production uses a lot of energy. Green hydrogen, produced without CO2 emissions, is currently a more expensive option than production from CH4, which produces a lot of CO2. We want green hydrogen to compete on cost, not just vibes. We believe that correctly developed energy should deliver a green dividend rather than demanding a green premium, and that rapid mass market adoption depends on beating the incumbent polluters on price.

d able to address nearly every market on Earth. This is in sharp contrast to fossil oil and gas, which is hidden underground in just a few places on Earth and impossible to exploit without global infrastructure. Indeed, as we’ve written before once solar synthetic gas hits the cost parity threshold with fossil hydrocarbons there will be unstoppable global development until further price reductions and capacity increases saturate demand. Conservatively, we expect the oil and gas industry to grow from $6.4T/year today to at least $25T/year once second order global economic growth is factored in, and if we execute well we could be done by ~2040. Render of 1 MW Terraformer showing electrolyzer stacks (blue), CO2 capture system (orange) and fuel synthesis reactor (yellow). There are 32 electrolyzer stacks each consuming 25 kW directly from adjacent panels (not pictured). This natural implication of the basic underlying economics implies some potentially unexpected future developments, which I will list here for completeness. We expect to see the development of roughly 400 TW of solar worldwide, >90% of which will supply synthetic fuels most likely via hydrogen electrolysis and then catalytic synthesis using direct air capture (DAC) CO2. This will consume roughly 5% of Earth’s land surface area, comparable to current roads and urbanization and a lot less (in terms of both area and ecological impact) than current exploitation with farming and forestry, not to mention conventional fossil fuels extraction or uninhabited deserts. While electrification will continue to displace existing hydrocarbon usage, particularly in ground transportation and some residential heating applications, we expect hydrocarbon consumption to shift and grow, particularly in manufacturing and aviation as we move towards a near term future of unconditional material abundance for everyone on Earth. Do we want a future where Europe pushes through mandatory low quality carbon offsets on airfares, further restricting the privilege of high speed travel to the richest of the rich? Or do we want a future where cheap carbon-neutral aviation fuel expands access to globe-spanning travel opportunities for hundreds of millions of people while also enabling a renaissance of supersonic transport? While hydrocarbons today supply roughly 2/3 of the ~100 quads of energy consumed annually in the US, by ~2040 hydrocarbons will be downstream of cheap solar, just as nearly all grid electricity will be downstream of solar, providing energy to customers through parallel distribution networks of electricity, oil, and gas. This Sankey diagram provides a rough sketch of the US energy economy as it existed in 2021. This Sankey diagram shows how we expect natural economics forces will reshape the energy economy over the next two decades. The Terraform electrolyzer is composed of roughly 4000 individual cells. 100% market saturation implies the deployment of 400 million 1 MW electrolyzers worldwide. Not including ongoing fleet turnover, we expect the synthetic fuel industry to build and deploy 1.6 trillion electrolyzer cells, each roughly the size and cost of a dining plate, over the next 20 years. On average this works out to 2500 cells per second! I am wary of exaggeration but I think it is fair to say that in terms of parts, factories, ramp rate, and energy consumption, this is the single largest technology roll out to occur in the history of humanity, and will cause the other so-called industrial revolutions to pale into insignificance. We are hiring! Here is a photo of part of a previous electrolyzer design. If you have the vision, insight, and intuition to help us bring this electrolyzer to the masses then email us at hiring@terraformindustries.com. We are looking for a one-pager of constructively critical design review commentary demonstrating your understanding of its design constraints, requirements both real and unnecessary, and, of course, what we’ve missed. August 16, 2023October 11, 2024 terraformindustries Share this: • Twitter • Facebook Like Loading…

I am 100% confident that by the time we are mass producing this system at these prices later this decade, not only will this be the cheapest hydrogen available anywhere, it will also be the cheapest chemical energy and by far the most scalable – offering <5 year ROI with an extremely competitive supply chain and able to address nearly every market on Earth. This is in sharp contrast to fossil oil and gas, which is hidden underground in just a few places on Earth and impossible to exploit without global infrastructure.